Showing posts with label Finance News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance News. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Investment Update and Forecast June/July 2018

Investment Update - June/July 2018


Generally, the month of May was consistent with the 2018 story of a global economy entering a mature stage characterised by market volatility, the gradual emergence of inflation, higher interest rates (primarily in the US) and a softening of global economic growth indicators. This cooling off period, which is usually accompanied with weaker equity markets, is likely to represent a healthy return to normal levels of growth as opposed to alarming signs of an economic deterioration. However, it is also likely to be true that the consistent and highly profitable financial markets are now behind us. Geopolitical issues in countries such as Italy, Turkey and Argentina also added new concerns for global markets over May.

Global
The OECD’s most recent general assessment of the global macro-economic environment predicts that expansion is set to persist over the next two years, with global GDP projected to rise by close to 4% in 2018 and 2019. Growth in developed countries is predicted to remain around 2.5% per cent per annum, helped by fiscal easing in many economies. It is also considered that GDP will strengthen to close to 5% growth among some developing countries.

Although job growth is likely to ease in advanced economies, the OECD-wide unemployment rate is projected to fall to its lowest level since 1980, with labour shortages intensifying in some countries. Wage and price inflation are accordingly projected to rise, but only moderately, given the apparent muted impact of resource pressures on inflation in recent years and the scope left in some economies to strengthen labour force participation.


US 10-year bond yields started strong in May and pushed through the psychologically important 3% barrier. However, the political upheaval in Italy toward the end of May caused U.S. Treasury yields to post their largest daily decline in nearly two years, and at the end of the month, traded well below 3%.

The rally continued in oil markets early in May. The latest spur for price rises stems from American sanctions on Iran which drove Brent crude close to $80 a barrel, the highest level in four years and up by almost 50% from a year ago. However, later in the month prices dropped and traded at around $70 a barrel as supply concerns eased.


The US
While America and China continued negotiations, trade conflicts opened on new fronts. Japan, Russia and Turkey notified the World Trade Organisation that they would follow the lead taken by the EU and India in applying tariffs on American steel and aluminium in retaliation for the duties America recently imposed on such imports, unless those duties are reversed. Mr Trump, meanwhile, signalled a new battle with Europe and Japan by ordering the Commerce Department to look at imposing tariffs on imports of cars on the ground of national security, the same argument that lies behind the levies on steel and aluminium. However, so far tough talk by the White House to renegotiate trade relationships has ended up as incremental concessions.

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the change in the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, reached 1.9% at the end of March. This supports the expectation that the Fed will increase the Fed Funds Rate by a further 0.50%-0.75% in 2018, with further increases expected in 2019.

The Fed continues to include the word “gradual” in its commentary regarding the expected future path of interest rates, so not to alarm markets.

If the current level of job growth is maintained and the proportion of people participating in the labour market remains unchanged, then a 3.5% unemployment rate could be hit in a year’s time. In this scenario wage inflation is likely to be the biggest concern for the Fed.


The UK
Although the Bank of England left rates unchanged in March, two members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted to increase rates suggesting a tightening bias existed for the UK.

Europe
Italy’s political turmoil unnerved markets. Italy had been without a government since its March election, which yielded a hung parliament with no party or coalition holding a majority.  The recent jolt to markets came after populists named Paolo Savona, an economist who thinks that Italy should quit the euro, as finance minister. President Sergio Mattarella vetoed Mr Savona and the populists threatened for a moment to impeach him and even hinted at a march on Rome. Amid talk of a political, constitutional and economic crisis, bond yields spiked and global stock markets shuddered. The yield on Italian sovereign bonds rose at a pace not seen since the euro-zone debt crisis. The ten-year bond yield rose to 3%, the highest level since 2014. Ignazio Visco, the governor of the Bank of Italy, warned the quarrelling politicians about the danger of “losing the irreplaceable asset of trust”.

Emerging Markets
Argentina faces pressure to hasten economic overhaul. President Marci’s efforts to curb inflation and jump-start the economy without shocking Argentina hasn’t gone as planned. Investors continue to question the Argentina central bank’s credibility as it cut interest rates in January to support growth despite inflation at 25%, well above target. They worried about the government’s ability to reduce expenses to plug the fiscal gap and enact regulatory changes intended to improve business competitiveness and cut red tape.

Facing a currency crisis, Turkey’s central bank simplified its system of multiple interest rates. The one-week repo rate (the rate at which the central bank lends money to commercial banks in the event of any shortfall of funds) became its new benchmark, which it also doubled to 16.5%. The central bank’s governor met investors to offer reassurances that monetary policy would tighten further if inflation remains stubbornly high. The Turkish lira, which has taken a battering over concerns that the central bank’s independence is under threat from politicians wanting lower interest rates, rallied in response.


Australia
While Australia’s Reserve Bank and Treasury anticipate growth picking up to 3.25% over 2019 and 2020 many market commentators are predicting more conservative growth of around 2.5 – 2.7%. The sceptical commentators attempt to balance the growth story of strong non-residential construction, government investment and exports with reservations around slower residential construction and potentially weaker consumer spending.
Spratt Financial Services
09 307 8200
www.spratt.co.nz

Jonathan Parsons, AFA, M.Mgmt, Dip. Fin Plng.
027 201 3470

jonathan.parsons@sprattfinancial.co.nz

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Financial News Roundup March 2018


1. Auckland Maori Hapu to provide free health insurance for its members. - NZ Herald

Auckland based Ngati Whatua Orakei has joined with NIB to provide its members free health insurance in an arrangement that is likely to cost around $3 million annually.  

2. Thousands of recently built homes covered by liquidated CBL Insurance. - Stuff.co.nz

The Insurance for thousands of recent homes covered for shoddy building practices could be put into limbo as CBL Insurance has officially gone into liquidation.

3. What went wrong at CBL? - NZ Herald

In a follow up to the previous article, the Herald looks at what factors surrounded the collapse of CBL and how it went from a trusted insurer to liquidation in the NZ marketplace.

4. Home Insurers crack down on Meth Claims. - NZ Herald

As overall claims for methamphetamine related damage increases year over year, insurers have greatly hiked excesses for meth claims and premiums to curb losses.

5. Kiwisaver fee drop 'missed the mark'. - Good Returns

A review of the default fees for KiwiSaver providers led to only two of nine major providers changing their fees in response.

6. Partners Life introduces a new range of level premium options. - Good Returns

Partners Life have introduced level premium (fixed premiums which remain the same until an agreed upon age) options for its suite of personal and business insurance products.

7. A bumper year forecast for mergers and acquisitions. - NZ Herald

Pent up demand following last year's elections may lead to a major year for acquisitions and mergers, industry insiders tip.





Thursday, June 1, 2017

The Financial Implications of NZ's Aging Population

National’s election policy of increasing the superannuation eligibility age has reignited talk about NZ’s aging population and its various implications. There are several reasons behind the aging population including ‘baby boomers’ getting closer to retirement, falling birth rates, and improving healthcare leading to people living longer. The chart below, projecting the number of New Zealanders who aren’t of working age, illustrates the extent of the issue. Currently, just over 1.6 million people are either over 65 or younger than 15. This is expected to almost double over the next 50 years to just shy of 3 million people (almost half the total population).

It’s not just us here in New Zealand who are going through this. Most developed nations are in the same boat - Japan being the worst, with 40% of their current population not of working age and their total population actually in decline! The implications of this are much wider than simply the Government’s ability to provide pensions to a growing number of people. It negatively impacts economic growth and overall productivity, with fewer people to turn the cogs.
So how do we solve this issue? There are a few options. One very complex solution involving changing people’s behaviour, is to increase the birth rate. Another is to speed up the adoption of robotics and automation to replace retirees. This will contribute to solving the issue, but requires a lot of investment and won’t necessarily be able to keep pace (50 years ago people were sure we’d have flying cars by now). But it does open opportunities for innovative companies and those catering to the needs of ageing consumers. Another option, and quite possibly the simplest of the lot… immigration. 
We specialise in assisting clients near or in retirement to manage their nest egg to best suit their future needs. You can email us anytime for our latest SPRATT FINANCIAL Term Deposit rates (0.1% Platform fee).




Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Breaking News: Insurance/Investments/Home Loans



1. Insurance Council rejects criticism over Kaikoura Earthquake claims. - Radio NZ

The Insurance Council is defending the industry against claims that some commercial claims are taking too long in Kaikoura following the latest devastating earthquakes.

2. Wedding Insurance now available to Kiwis at home or abroad. - Stuff.co.nz

New Zealand's first specific insurance designed to cover wedding festivities has been launched, and it also covers Kiwis choosing to have their big day overseas.

3. Kaikoura Earthquakes the seventh most costly event covered by insurers in 2016. - Interest.co.nz

The total amount of damage caused by the quakes is estimated at $4.5 billion NZD, of which 60% is expected to be covered by some form of insurance.

4. Why rich Americans see NZ as a haven. - NZ Herald

A new wave of wealthy Americans sees NZ as an attractive option, isolated enough from the perceived and real turmoils of their home nation and offering a more positive environment and lifestyle. 

5. Auckland falls to world's fourth least livable city. - NZ Herald

Citing moderate pay and ever increasing cost of living and house prices, Auckland is now ranked behind only Hong Kong, Sydney and Vancouver among world cities.


Particular habits of overspending are contributing to a major impact on households ability to service their home loan debt.


Kiwiblank cites funding costs as the reason behind increasing mortgage rates twice already in the first month of 2017.

Spratt Financial Services
www.sprattfinancial.co.nz








Wednesday, June 29, 2016

The effect of Brexit on your investments.

In the wake of the historic referendum that resulted in Britain's decision to leave the European Union, there has been much financial and economic concern about what this may mean for investments and finances worldwide. Since the result was announced, the British Pound has fallen to 30 year lows, including a 7% fall against the New Zealand dollar.

Here in New Zealand, Kiwi investors are being urged not to panic. John Berry of Pathfinder said NZ investors shouldn't expect a great impact from the result largely because New Zealand's market is largely insulated against the fall that could continue in the United Kingdom and Europe. He went on to say though, that any global downturn that occurs could have an impact on confidence and equities that could permeate our marketplace.

Other advisers have said that if you are long term investor, this will eventually be seen as merely a momentary blip. Short term investors could suffer a degree of loss, but most experts expect that markets will rebuild. Nick Tuffley, ASB chief economist stated that though there is little danger of a significant long term loss, "people need to think about what they are doing and why - whether their objective has been changed by what has happened."

If you are concerned with the impact that Brexit could have on your investment or your finances, our professional investment team offer you free, no obligation advice or reviews at any time through our contact form here. 




Monday, January 11, 2016

Financial News Round-up - New Years 2016



1. 5 health insurance resolutions to consider in 2016. - NZ Herald

Some great things to consider with regards to your health insurance in 2016 including considering deadlines, when to make changes, and how to get familiar with your coverage.

2. UK Insurers reject almost 50% of mobile phone claims. - Insurance Business Online

As mobile phone insurance becomes more and more of a necessity, UK insurers have been doing the industry and their clients a disservice by finding means to reject claims, including not having certain apps installed and not having SIM cards inside.

3. NZ's largest general insurer introduces a new CEO. - Interest.co.nz

Craig Olsen has taken over the top job at IAG as part of a new leadership team announced just before the New Year. He is taking over from former CEO Jacki Johnson.

4. Daily mortgage rates from the major suppliers. - Interest.co.nz

Handy tool to keep track of mortgage rates from the major lending suppliers in NZ.

5. To cash up, or to keep your money in Kiwisaver? - NZ Herald

A good article featuring tips on what to do with your money in your Kiwisaver and how to make the most of it. Also, keep in mind Spratt Financial's free Kiwisaver consultation service to help make sure your Kiwisaver is performing the best that it can.

6. New website educating the public about personal insurance products set to launch. - Good Returns

Life-Info.org.nz currently preparing for launch in the New Year aims to add to the financial literacy of the NZ public as it relates to the crucial matter of personal insurance.

7. New Year's resolution: Financial fitness tips for retirees. - NZ Herald

Older people were recently found to be less likely to set financial goals than younger people. Experts in the field have put together their best tips for older people to become financially fit and secure.




Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Finance News Round Up




Some simple tips on how to improve your finances, including keeping a monthly spending diary, properly organising your bank accounts for financial efficiency and taking an honest look at your mortgage and how it can be improved.


Forecasting tools originally used for insurance are forecasting a 44.3% chance of the All Blacks winning the Rugby World Cup.


Travel insurance company is gearing up to receive hundreds of travel insurance claims from Kiwis travelling in the UK for the World Cup. One insurance company estimated the cost at being flown back to NZ by air ambulance in case of a severe emergency to be verging on $100,000.


Southern Cross has registered a $5.8 million surplus, recovering from a $1.1 million deficit last financial year. They have also come out in favour of a 25% rebate for members over 65.

5. Insurer launches new marine liability product. - Insurance Business Online 

This new product will simplify things for marina operators and ship builders/repairers by no longer forcing these businesses to buy two standalone liability policies.

6. NZ Dollar hanging in there despite doom forecasts. - Interest.co.nz

Roger J Kerr states that the NZ dollar is showing many traits of the conquering All Blacks rugby team by hanging in there against the USD despite numerous forecasts to the contrary.



Friday, July 17, 2015

Financial News (July 2015)

Spratt Financial Group - Breaking News



1. Dunedin flood insurance bill found to be $28 million. - Radio NZ News

When South Dunedin experienced 3 months worth of rain in a single day, the damage was extensive. There were 2,000 domestic claims and 170 claims for damaged vehicles with claims totalling $28 million.

2. Westpac loosens apartment lending rules. - Good Returns

Changes have been made to make things easier for borrowers and first home buyers, by increasing the LVR maximum from 80% to 85% with certain conditions and limitations.

3. Options discussed to improve Kiwisaver. - Good Returns

Options are being discussed at a workshop on IRD's annual kiwisaver day on August 10th. Many proposed initiatives include better education for the general public about the key positive features of kiwisaver  as well as ensuring savers are in the most beneficial choice of fund.

4. Advice: Being vigilant about financial abuse. - Fisher Funds (NZ Herald)

Financial abuse can happen, from both untrustworthy advisers and fund managers as well as from members of one's own family. People are urged to be vigilant about who they trust with their money and look out for members of their own family when they make big financial decisions.

5. Expert: Financial skills among the general public prove to be poor. - NZ Herald

Whilst most people are good at looking after their money on a daily basis, they tend to make poor decisions for their future, according to a financial advice expert.

6. Kiwis see economic issues as the biggest problem for NZ. - Scoop.co.nz

44% of surveyed New Zealanders declared economic issues as the biggest problem facing the country. A growing 14% of Kiwis also view the housing shortage as the greatest concern (up 4% from March 2015 figures).

7. Auckland housing market 'continues to go mad' - NZ Herald

In the wake of Labour's controversial release of housing data highlighting the possible impact of foreign investors, Auckland's property market continues to increase 10 times faster than the remainder of the country according to the most recently released data.


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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Breaking News (June 2015)



1. Do you have a plan for who will manage your money if you can't? - NZ Herald

If a family member suffers a severe illness or accident and can't continue to manage their affairs, you don't want legal wrangling and financial stress added to your burdens. It's always best to make sure you have a written plan and/or legal will in place so that you and your dependants will be okay if the worst happens.

2. AIA announces profit growth. - Good Returns

One of New Zealand's premier insurers has announced an underlying growth of 21% in profits for the year for the 12 months to November 30th 2014.

3. Self-driving cars: Insurers sceptical about impact on business. - Insurance Business Online

84% of business executives surveyed in the US did not expect the self-driving car to impact business until 2025 but are they ignoring the speed of a revolution? Industry insiders saying Self-driving vehicles could completely revamp the structure of Vehicle Insurance worldwide.

4. Humor: Insurance Fraudster tries to cash in a claim on a fake dead cat. - Insurance Business Online.

An American man has demanded an escalating amount in successive claim requests for emotional damage inflicted by the death of his cat in a car accident. The problem: There is no such cat and the pictures he supplied were of two different cats from Google.

5. Average Auckland house price up $100,000 in a year, but available listings down. - Interest.co.nz

Auckland housing boom continues as New Zealand's largest real estate agency sold a record number of houses in May, showing no sign of the usual winter downturn.

6. Flooding: Insurance claims reach towards $10 million. - Stuff.co.nz

Insurers have received close to 2,000 claims after severe flooding in the lower North Island over the weekend of the 20th June.

7. Annual health insurance payouts rise by $38 million. - NZ Herald

Following on from a previous story posted on the blog, the annual health insurance payout figure has been revised upward yet more. This is the first time since the statistics have been kept that $1 billion has been paid out in claims nationwide.

8. Cold snap hits New Zealand: Could we see record low temperatures? - NZ Herald

Ice and snow covers South Island roads and last week, Queenstown airport was forced to cancel a day's worth of flights. The record low tempearture recorded in New Zealand of a shocking -25 degrees may be under threat if the cold continues. Drivers are urged to stay safe on the road and to keep alert and warm.


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Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Breaking News (May 2015)



1. Tower Insurance makes a game out of safe driving. - Stuff.co.nz

With their new smartphone app, families finally have a way to settle all those arguments about who among them is the better/safer driver. Good feedback and points are accumulated for safe braking, smooth acceleration, good cornering and driving at safe speeds under the speed limit. Once every journey is complete, the app gives your score as well as feedback on how to improve next time. This has led 74% of drivers to improve their scores over time.

2. NIB launches new travel insurance. - Scoop.co.nz

NIB is partnering with global travel insurance provider World Nomad Group to offer travel insurance to Kiwis along with their current health and medical insurance business. This marks NIB's continued expansion in the NZ marketplace after purchasing TOWER medical in 2012.

3. Rise in amount of Insurance and Superannuation Jobs available. - Scoop.co.nz

The latest data from SEEK has revealed a month to month jump of 40% in the amount of insurance and superannuation jobs available, much of the growth coming from Auckland and Canterbury.

4. Health Insurance Claims hit $1 billion for the year. - Good Returns

The milestone was reached in the March quarter with insurance funded healthcare in NZ passing $1,000 million. The number of policy holders over the age of 65 continued to grow with the number reaching 150,000 in March.

5. NZ Government asking for everyday Kiwis flag suggestions - Standfor.co.nz

Submissions for new flag designs and what we stand for are being requested by the NZ government. What do you stand for?

6. Health: Study links long car commutes to weight gain. - NZ Herald

People who have changed from their routine of driving to work to walking, cycling or using public transportation lost significant amounts of weight. The research was led by the University of East Anglia in the UK. The longer the commute, the more the weight loss as commutes over 10 minutes leading to a loss of 2kg and a huge 7kg on average for journeys of more than 30 minutes.

7. Opinion: Is Auckland a housing bubble and will it burst? - NZ Herald

Every month we read news about soaring Auckland house prices, with the figures just becoming more and more bloated and out of reach of everyday Kiwis. Is this a permanent trend or a housing bubble that is set to burst?







Friday, March 27, 2015

Breaking Financial News



1. Asteron receives A+ rating from Standard and Poor's. - Good Returns

Asteron, New Zealand's fourth largest life insurer received a confirmation of its strong market position as S & P granted it an A+ rating for financial strength. New business has increased 14% to build further upon their 41% increase of the previous year.

2. New pandemic insurance to prevent crisis with early payouts. - Yahoo! New Zealand

In the past, governments have been forced to raise funds in the aftermath of disease outbreaks. The World Bank, the African Union and other financial institutions are attempting to circumvent this by designing insurance schemes which will pay out immediately as an outbreak happens, providing the funds to better manage the crisis before it fully takes hold.

3. Celebrities insuring their body parts for up to $40 million. - MTV.com

According to celebrity insiders, Taylor Swift's legs are worth $40 million and Kim Kardashian has had her derriere insured too. Famous singers have insured their voice and piano players have insured their fingers through brokers for a princely sum.

4. Southern Cross axes 'trivial' Travel Insurance Excess. - NZ Herald

In great news for travellers and Southern Cross members, Southern Cross have removed the $100 excess for travel insurance claims, calling the amount 'trivial' and unnecessary. Southern Cross hoped that the removal of the excess would encourage travellers to seek medical attention for minor ailments.

5. Crowded Kiwisaver market sparks concern. - Good Returns

With so many Kiwisaver providers on the market, fears are arising that things as they are will become unsustainable. A major expert in the field says that he could imagine a future with only a few large providers with multi-sector portfolios.



Thursday, December 18, 2014

Spratt Financial Christmas News Roundup (Part Two)



1. Tips to avoid becoming a Christmas burglary statistic. - Yahoo.co.nz

It's an unfortunate fact that burglary is rife during the festive season when many of us are away on holiday. Here are some tips to stop this from happening to you. Home and contents cover is a good start, but it's a good idea to be prepared, vigilant and take precautions to make sure your Christmas is as happy and stress free as can be.

2. Onepath life introduces new products to meet consumer demand. - Good returns

In the most significant product enhancement in years, Onepath has released two new income protection covers and one redundancy cover, including enhanced features such as new loss of earnings cover and 115% cover on mortgage repayments.

3. Rising housing costs hit wallets hard. - Stuff.co.nz

Average NZ incomes have not risen at a high enough pace to keep up with rising housing costs. Whilst incomes have risen 3.1%, the average spent on housing has jumped by more than double this figure, by 8.6%.

4. Why some people work on Christmas Day - BBC News

Spare a thought for those of us working on Christmas day, providing valuable service. Here are some of their stories courtesy of the BBC.

5. Forecasters predict a warm Christmas with a chance of rain. - NZ Herald

The last weeks, Auckland has experienced some horrendous weather on and off, the weather for Christmas is forecast to be warm, with a chance of rain. Fingers crossed it passes us by, surely we are due for some good stuff!

6. Top 10 hot items for Christmas. - NZ Herald

Statistics from recent Trademe searches reveal the hottest Christmas purchases for New Zealanders in 2014.






Thursday, December 11, 2014

Spratt Financial News Roundup



1. Five minutes with the head of Zurich New Zealand Claims department. - Insurance Business Online

Here, Brian Chikanya related that he believes that insurance products are very often misunderstood and this is one of the things about the insurance industry he wishes to change. We do too, both by helping simplify the insurance process, as well as better explaining the benefits to clients and the public.

2. A Christmas treat for the needy in Wairarapa on Christmas. - NZ Herald/Wairarapa Times

Carterton residents who would otherwise be alone this Christmas, or those in need of a good Christmas meal can congregate at the Carterton Events Centre where for 14 years, volunteers have dedicated their day to providing a wonderful community experience. A nice story to put a smile on your face this Christmas season.

3. Kiwis warned not to leave valuables in their cars. - NZ Herald

One major car insurance company paid out $810,000 in car theft claims, and in the wake of a survey in which a third of New Zealanders admitted to leaving valuables in their car, Kiwis are warned to take valuable items with them this Christmas.

4. Aussies currently leading the way with Health Insurance. - NZ Herald

Only 12.5% of New Zealanders over 65 are covered by health insurance, as opposed to a comparatively huge 52% in Australia. Australian investors have become excited about health insurance, showing us in New Zealand a possible way forward for the industry.

5. Kiwisaver bill has first reading in parliament. - Good Returns

This proposal could have a huge impact for Kiwisavers as it would allow members to withdraw Government tax credits, as well as their own contributions, and also doubles the subsidy for first home buyers. We will keep you and all of our clients currently with Kiwisaver updated on the progress of the bill.

6. One in five New Zealanders possibly renters for life. - Stuff.co.nz

The harsh housing market, especially in Auckland, is leading Kiwis to accept the possibility that they may be renters for life. Even in the current market however, there may be finance options available to make first home buying a reality. Send us an enquiry and our mortgage/lending team might be able to make your dreams of owning a home come true.